Faculty of Geography- University of Tehran urban tourism 2423-6926 4 3 2017 10 23 Developing Scenarios of the Factors Affecting the Development of Tourism in West Azerbaijan Province Using the Scenario Wizard Developing Scenarios of the Factors Affecting the Development of Tourism in West Azerbaijan Province Using the Scenario Wizard 49 62 64599 10.22059/jut.2018.229271.292 FA Mirnajaf Mousavi Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Urmia University Is-haq Jalalian Assistant Professor of Payame Noor University FatemehSadat Kahaki MSc of Applied Planning, Urmia University Journal Article 2017 05 16 Different countries strive to develop tourism and attract more international tourists, and plan to finance foreign exchange earnings and other industry interests. In planning and managing tourism development, the use of modern futures research methods, especially scenario planning, is now very promising due to the elaboration of flexible strategies for solving land issues. In this regard, the research subject is to develop scenarios of the factors affecting the tourism development in West Azerbaijan Province using the Scenario Wizard. This research is applied, and its method of studying, by using new approaches to future studies, is normative. In this research, based on its nature, the information is gathered in two ways: library method and questionnaire. Given the fact that the MICMAC software and the Scenario Wizard are used to analyze the data, the questionnaire is cross-reference matrix and is aimed at navigating the views of experts and specialists. Results of the software are the identification of 14 key factors, which, according to the similarity of some factors, were merged into 12 factors. A total of 37 different possible situations were considered for the key factors. The export scenarios for the Scenario Wizard include: 4 scenarios with high adaptability, 1600 poorly adapted scenarios, and 672 incompatible scenarios. The results show that 4 scenarios have more adaptability in developing the future tourism of the province. Of the four scenarios, the first scenario of favorable conditions (scenario 2), Scenario 2 has a relatively favorable scenario and interstitial state, and Scenario 3 and 4 have a critical and unfavorable situation for the future of the province's tourism status. Different countries strive to develop tourism and attract more international tourists, and plan to finance foreign exchange earnings and other industry interests. In planning and managing tourism development, the use of modern futures research methods, especially scenario planning, is now very promising due to the elaboration of flexible strategies for solving land issues. In this regard, the research subject is to develop scenarios of the factors affecting the tourism development in West Azerbaijan Province using the Scenario Wizard. This research is applied, and its method of studying, by using new approaches to future studies, is normative. In this research, based on its nature, the information is gathered in two ways: library method and questionnaire. Given the fact that the MICMAC software and the Scenario Wizard are used to analyze the data, the questionnaire is cross-reference matrix and is aimed at navigating the views of experts and specialists. Results of the software are the identification of 14 key factors, which, according to the similarity of some factors, were merged into 12 factors. A total of 37 different possible situations were considered for the key factors. The export scenarios for the Scenario Wizard include: 4 scenarios with high adaptability, 1600 poorly adapted scenarios, and 672 incompatible scenarios. The results show that 4 scenarios have more adaptability in developing the future tourism of the province. Of the four scenarios, the first scenario of favorable conditions (scenario 2), Scenario 2 has a relatively favorable scenario and interstitial state, and Scenario 3 and 4 have a critical and unfavorable situation for the future of the province's tourism status. https://jut.ut.ac.ir/article_64599_298f1f97853f19fd280baca3166d8c9c.pdf