Future study for Determining the key drivers of sustainable tourism (case study: Torghabeh city)

Today, tourism stands as one of the most prominent global industries, functioning both as a catalyst for economic growth and as a key platform for advancing sustainable urban development. Yet, despite substantial tourism potential, many cities have struggled to translate these advantages into sustainable development outcomes. This study seeks to identify the key factors shaping tourism across the various dimensions of sustainability and to explore the degree of interrelationship among them in Torghabeh—a city endowed with distinctive resources and facilities that can be leveraged to foster urban tourism development. Methodologically, this applied research employs a futures studies approach, integrating both quantitative and qualitative techniques. In the first phase, relevant factors were identified through expert consultations with twelve tourism specialists, selected via the snowball sampling method. In the second phase, the key drivers of sustainable tourism development in Torghabeh were identified using a semi-structured questionnaire, with the cross-impact matrix applied to assess both the influence and interdependence of variables. The findings reveal instability within Torghabeh’s tourism system, highlighting six principal drivers: (1) cultural events such as festivals, exhibitions, conferences, and seminars; (2) private sector investment; (3) competitiveness; (4) equitable distribution of facilities; (5) macro-level policy frameworks; and (6) the expansion of tourism-related built environments. Together, these drivers constitute the critical forces shaping the city’s path toward sustainable tourism development.

Introduction



Sustainable tourism indicators (STIs) constitute a core component of tourism planning and management. Such indicators serve as essential tools for destinations seeking to advance toward more sustainable models of tourism development. Yet, limited tangible progress combined with the rapid pace of technological change is compelling policymakers to reconsider and adapt existing indicator systems. Against this backdrop, the present study aims to evaluate sustainable tourism in Torghabeh and to provide insights and directions for future research concerning its potential for fostering sustainable tourism development.



Methodology



This study is applied in purpose and descriptive in nature. In the theoretical phase, data were collected through documentary and library research. In the practical phase, guided by a futures studies approach aimed at identifying effective drivers of sustainable tourism development, the research adopted a descriptive–analytical design, integrating both quantitative and qualitative methods.

Accordingly, in the first stage, in-depth interviews were conducted with twelve tourism experts to identify variables and indicators relevant to the development of sustainable tourism in Torghabeh. Participants were recruited using the chain referral (snowball) technique, and by the tenth interview, theoretical saturation had been largely achieved. Nonetheless, the interview process continued until the twelfth case to ensure broader coverage. The interviews were manually coded, yielding 32 variables, which were subsequently categorized into five groups: socio-cultural, economic, environmental, managerial, and infrastructural–service factors.

In the second stage, experts completed a semi-structured questionnaire in which they scored the effectiveness and influence of each variable on a scale from zero to three, within the framework of a cross-impact matrix. Here, zero denoted no impact, one indicated weak impact, two represented moderate impact, and three reflected strong impact. Finally, MICMAC software was employed to compute and analyze the cross-impact matrix.

Results and Discussion

Tourism activities demand careful planning, management, and monitoring within a long-term sustainability framework—an approach that many cities and countries currently lack. Variations in the key factors shaping sustainable tourism across cities highlight differences in their relative effectiveness, which depend on diverse local conditions and contextual factors.

In their study of Kerman, Ali Akbari et al. (2017) identified competitiveness as the most significant driver influencing the future of sustainable tourism. Other important indicators included the removal of travel barriers, the expansion of built spaces, and environmental degradation linked to construction, alongside the role of participation and solidarity. Nasr (2018) identified eight categories of key drivers for tourism in the metropolis of Shiraz: advertising, local management, water resources, security, food security, historical monuments, macro-level national policies, and citizen participation. Similarly, Dohdehzadeh Silabi and Ahmadifard (2018) found that variables related to infrastructure and the service sector constitute the most influential drivers in the cities of Mazandaran Province.

These variations reflect the specific conditions prevailing in each country. For instance, Maxim (2016) examined sustainable tourism in London and found that only a limited number of local authorities referenced its principles in policy documents, and even fewer demonstrated initiative in implementation. Consequently, government and local authorities emerged as the most influential drivers of sustainable tourism in London. Likewise, Kisi (2019) argued that the strategic approach to sustainable tourism development in Zonguldak, Turkey, hinges on product diversity, event management, destination image, sustainable visitor management systems, advertising and branding strategies, and collaborative partnerships.

Conclusion

The imperative for sustainable tourism development has gained global prominence, driven by the rapid expansion of the industry and its adverse impacts on social structures, natural resources, and cultural values. By contrast, sustainable tourism seeks to minimize environmental degradation while maximizing the socio-economic benefits generated for destinations. This study adopts a futures studies approach to formulate strategic pathways for the sustainable development of tourism in Torghabeh.

Many of the factors identified through the cross-impact matrix emerged as development drivers, while others, though not classified as key variables in the initial analysis, still exerted influence as secondary forces in Torghabeh’s development process. Given the city’s specific conditions, the following drivers must be incorporated into the formulation of final scenarios: cultural events such as festivals, exhibitions, conferences, and seminars; private sector investment; competitiveness; equitable distribution of facilities; macro-level policy frameworks; and the expansion of tourism-related built spaces. These factors are central to enhancing Torghabeh’s capacity for long-term sustainability and to fostering repeat visitation by tourists. In conclusion, despite notable environmental weaknesses and threats, Torghabeh possesses significant tourism potential that requires strategic management to ensure sustainable development.