Identifying the Tourism Industry Key Forces based on Strategic Scenario Planning (Case Study: Mako Free Zone)

Document Type : Research Article


1 Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Marand Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran

2 Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Maragheh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Maragheh, Iran


In the present study, first, trends and macro-processes affecting the tourism sector in the region in relation to the internal and external environment were examined, and after extracting the key drivers, the situation was forecasted. In order to identify the factors by studying the opinions of experts in the field, four categories of human, organizational, physical and economic factors were grouped and then using the Delphi technique and obtaining the votes of 21 experts, the sub-components of the tourism industry were identified. In this research, the matrix method of cross-effects resulting from positivism and Delphi technique resulting from positivism and combining quantitative and qualitative analysis resulting from the participatory method have been used. In the first part, Micmac software and ScenarioWizard software are used and the believable modes and separation of scenarios and the range of desirable three to crisis in the boom of the tourism industry were identified with a futuristic approach. In the second part, by identifying external factors using PESTLE analysis in the software environment, opportunities and threats in economic, social, political, technological, legal and environmental dimensions are grouped and using the results of environmental assessment and recognition of the current situation, to present scenarios. Probably studied and by testing these scenarios, the best scenarios were selected to achieve the defined goals. According to the results, 3 drivers of commercialization policy and removal of economic, administrative and political barriers (HP1), political security and stability (GJ1) and marketing, identification and advertising (SP6) and public investment (GI5) in the first place of direct and indirect influence and 3 The drivers of production technology (L5), tax rate, cost and price level (L6) and domestic economic fluctuations (T1) are in the first place of direct and indirect impact. Based on the data analysis, 8 strong scenarios, 18 plausible scenarios and 4334 weak scenarios were identified, and finally 13 reasonable scenarios for planning and policy making were provided to the research. In the final section, by reviewing and enumerating the goals in 7 general headings, 15 factors and 51 key drivers, a 10-year vision was drawn. According to the results, among the factors affecting the tourism industry, 5 high-level priorities include; Political security and stability, commercialization strategies, removal of economic, administrative and political barriers, participatory and cross-sectoral participation, decision-making process and participation of stakeholders and macro-processes with negative impact such as the quality of tourism business systems, media and advertising, climate change and mitigation Biological resources, economic fluctuations and trade barriers are significant. Findings show that the knowledge provided by stakeholders active in the tourism system can be useful for planning and managing tourism destinations.


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