Analysis of Urban Tourism Issues in the Future Drivers of Shiraz Metropolis' Exposure to Infectious Diseases and COVID-19

 A B S T R A C T
Tourism activity is a global industry, and thus it is exposed to global risks. Covid-19 and tourism are intricately connected. Tourists were among those who suffered the most damage in the initial stages of the disease outbreak. They became carriers of this disease and eventually became victims of travel and tourism. In the 21st century, the two driving factors for change in the tourism industry are climate change and global health emergencies. Urgent attention to this event and the future of travel and tourism is necessary in a world where disease outbreaks and epidemics are increasingly being considered due to increased travel and ease of access to destinations worldwide. Concerning practical purpose, the present research has been carried out using the survey method at the exploratory level based on the future research approach. In this research, using the Delphi method and the participation of 34 experts, the results were analyzed in the Mic Mac software environment. Then these factors were determined based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, prioritization, and the most critical factors to identify the drivers. A key from the software (Mic Mac) is used. The results show that ten variables were identified as vital drivers among the 36 effective variables discovered in the future state of Shiraz tourism. The results indicate that the key driver of the non-publication of the statistics on the incidence of covid-19 with a score of 92 has the highest impact factor on other variables. Also, the lack of a single plan to deal with this crisis is the municipality's cooperation to monitor health more. Public places and spaces were identified in the agenda of the development of healthy city policies as other key drivers of tourism and obstacles to improving the tourism situation during the occurrence of infectious diseases in Shiraz metropolis
Extended Abstract
Introduction
International travel has developed exponentially in the last few decades, and at the same time, diseases have increased their geographic spread under the influence of ecological, genetic and human factors. Currently, the increasing number of viruses, epidemics and pandemics are some of the most negative consequences of globalization, which cause deaths and significant economic losses due to its negative effects on the tourism industry, It shows one of the most affected sectors of health.  The city of Shiraz has been known as the medical pole of the south of the country for many years and hosts thousands of foreign patients every year. Also, having experienced and well-known doctors and paramedics at the level of the country, being close to the Persian Gulf countries, and numerous tourist attractions and suitable weather requires proper and efficient management to prevent injuries caused by infectious diseases. Both in the urban community itself and the arrival of tourists to this city. In this research, we aim to measure the resilience of urban tourism in Shiraz metropolis when faced with epidemic diseases and with a future-research approach to identify key factors and drivers effective in the future situation. Let's pay attention to the tourism resilience of this city. Therefore, it will be necessary to identify the key drivers of shaping the resilience of tourism when faced with epidemic and contagious diseases. In this regard, the following question is raised: What are the key drivers affecting the tourism situation of Shiraz metropolis when faced with the epidemic diseases of future fertility?
 
Methodology
The current research is descriptive-analytical and exploratory. From this point of view, it is an exploration that does not seek to confirm or reject the relationship between two variables, and its purpose is not to test a hypothesis, but to identify the driving forces that affect the future of tourism in Shiraz metropolis. The method of collecting information is library and field. This research is practical in terms of purpose. Environmental scanning and Delphi techniques have been used to identify variables and indicators. In this regard, in the first stage, articles and writings published in the field of tourism were used to collect the variables, then the semi-structured questionnaire was distributed among the experts in the field of tourism issues and they were asked to enter the cross-effects matrix into the variables. , give points based on effectiveness and effectiveness with numbers in the range of 0 to 3. Then, the scores were entered in the cross matrix to measure the direct and indirect effectiveness of each factor, and according to the factors' effectiveness score, key drivers are obtained. Then, in the next stage, the group of experts is asked to judge the opinions of other involved members, and finally, after monitoring the variables, 36 variables according to Table No. 3 are selected as primary variables affecting the future state of Shiraz tourism. 
 
 Results and discussion
Ten factors in the influence column had the largest contribution in direct influence. Also, according to the direct and indirect impact and dependence matrix, it can be said that the index of non-disclosure of incidence statistics ranks first in direct impact and again in the first rank of indirect impact. the variable of municipal cooperation is in the first rank with the highest amount of indirect dependence, as well as the first rank with the highest direct dependence. In the table below, the houses marked in white have equal ranks in the direct or indirect influence sections. And the houses that are marked in red have higher ranks in the direct impact section, but they have dropped to lower ranks in the indirect section. Also, the houses with green color were ranked lower in the direct ranking, which climbed to higher ranks in the indirect section. In the framework of prospective studies, while measuring the general state of urban tourism, its stability or instability pattern can also be found from the spatial distribution of variables on the level of diagrams and figures output from Mic-Mac software. Also, the almost high percentage of the filling factor (88%) in the research variables confirms the validity and reliability of the research tools at an almost high level.
 
Conclusion
The present study tried to identify and structurally analyze the key drivers of the resilience of the tourism industry by using 36 indicators and using the model of Mi'kmaq prospective studies and mutual effects analysis. Therefore, the effective indicators were carried out in the framework of a 36x36 matrix and 36 variables. Finally, by evaluating the mentioned 36 key factors (as a result of the analysis of the influence and effectiveness plan matrix) with direct and indirect methods, ten key factors have the most positive and negative impact on the situation of Iran's foreign tourism when facing the disease. Infectious diseases were identified. The results indicate that the variables, the lack of publication of incidence statistics, the lack of a single plan to deal with this crisis, the cooperation of the municipality to monitor the health of public places and spaces, the implementation of healthy city policies, effective organizational and institutional changes that cooperation between departments It encourages different and promotes community participation, tourists' indifference, identification of risk factors, lack of information and lack of monitoring of passengers at the airport and terminal as the key drivers of tourism in Shiraz metropolis in the outbreak of diseases. Contagious diseases and obstacles to improving the tourism situation were identified during the occurrence of infectious diseases in this metropolis. All these factors have negative consequences on the health of this urban community and the tourism situation, and may also prevent any intervention aimed at preventing the occurrence of infectious diseases and covid-19.
 
Funding
This work was done with financial support from the country's researchers and technology support fund.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.