Identification and analysis of key factors affecting the development of Sustainable Ecotourism in Lut Desert

Document Type : Research extracted From projects

Authors

Department of Tourism Management, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran

Abstract

A B S T R A C T
The Lut Desert is one of Iran's and the world's unique geosystems. Its evolution and transformation have led to the formation of inherent diversity and dominance in environmental characteristics. These two features, diversity and uniqueness, have provided this unit with inherent capabilities for tourism development. Therefore, using the technique of future studies, this study identifies, prioritizes, and formulates the most important factors that determine the development of Lut Desert tourism. It presents a suitable framework for planning in the horizon of 2036. In terms of purpose, this study is practical, and this research uses a combination of documentary and survey methods. In terms of nature, it is based on future studies and exploratory and analytical methods. This was carried out by applying a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The documentary and Delphi methods were mainly used to collect data. MICMAC software was also utilized for data analysis. Following initial discussion sessions with twenty tourism elites and experts as the study sample, fourteen variables out of forty were identified as the most important and uncertain factors related to the research topic. These variables were extracted from a review of sources and expert interviews, focusing on development factors. Five driving forces of potential alternatives were identified for future development during the analysis of the mutual effects between these factors. These driving forces include planning and policy development for Lut Desert tourism, governance development, strengthening the country's sovereignty in Lut Desert tourism development, improving the economic system, and enhancing financial support and investment. As a result, by applying the future research technique and taking into consideration the mentioned key drivers, decisions and plans will be directed and placed on a targeted path in the direction of the sustainable development of Lut desert ecotourism
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Despite the historical significance and potential benefits of desert tourism, its development in Iran has not been realized to its full potential. One of the challenges affecting tourism in the Lut desert is the lack of optimal planning. Despite the presence of natural, social, historical, and cultural resources that could support tourism development, the industry still lacks practical, targeted, and effective planning. It has not received the special attention it deserves.
Addressing and paying attention to desert tourism in Iran can be of special importance and necessity for the country's development and transformation. Achieving this task requires planners and policymakers to thoroughly understand past, present, and future situations to select and implement the best strategies and solutions for the development of alternative tourism. This is especially crucial in the field of Lut desert tourism studies. Utilizing future knowledge approaches is essential for success in this endeavor.
In this regard, the current research aims to investigate and identify the most important factors affecting the development of Lut Desert tourism, how they influence each other, and the extent of their impact. Considering the nature of the subject, this research has been conducted to answer the following question:
-What are the key driving forces affecting the future development of Lut Desert tourism, how do they affect each other, and to what extent?
Methodology
This research combines documentary and survey methods for practical purposes. It is based on future studies, using exploratory and analytical methods with a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Data collection primarily involved documentary and Delphi methods, with analysis conducted using MICMAC software. Various future studies techniques, such as the Delphi technique and analysis of mutual/structural effects, were applied to understand and explain future research in the field of tourism.
During the first stage of the research, 20 executive elites and tourism experts were selected as the study sample. These individuals had extensive expertise and experience in tourism issues. The main goal was to gather indicators (drivers) and primary factors that impact the development of Lut desert tourism. Existing documents were reviewed, and in-depth interviews were conducted using open and semi-structured questions.
The interviews extracted 40 primary indicators that are effective in developing Lut Desert tourism. Based on these indicators, a Delphi questionnaire was designed. This questionnaire was then provided to the experts from the first stage to confirm the items.
After collecting data and identifying 14 main indicators as development factors in the Delphi model, the compiled questionnaires were distributed among the elites. They were asked to evaluate the variables based on the degree of their influence and susceptibility using numbers in the cross-effects matrix. The measure ranges from 0 to 3, where zero means no effect, one means weak effect, two means medium effect, and three means high effect. "P" means direct and indirect effect.
 
Results and discussion
Planning and strategizing for the development of Lut Desert tourism allows experts and officials to anticipate future risks and opportunities. This gives them the time to think and make decisions before facing these challenges. Knowing how to plan for the future has become increasingly important due to the rapid pace of change in the world.
It is essential to identify the drivers and factors impacting the desired system to make informed decisions and plan for a more desirable future. In the competitive field of tourism, understanding uncertainties, recognizing alternative futures, and prioritizing activities through future studies research are crucial for success. By identifying key drivers, policymakers in Lut Desert tourism can better navigate future uncertainties.
The key drivers play a crucial role in shaping the future of Lut Desert tourism development and guiding the system towards necessary changes. They are seen as transformative and influential forces that impact the future trends and paths of tourism development. These drivers should be coordinated and integrated into the overall plan. People and organizations involved in tourism planning need to consider the development of Lut Desert tourism, ensuring that while preserving the current conditions, comprehensive development can be achieved in a principled manner for the future.
 
Conclusion
Among the 40 initially extracted influential components, 14 variables were identified as development factors due to their importance and uncertainty regarding the research subject. This identification was made by analyzing the impact plan matrix and evaluating key factors directly and indirectly. Five constructive driving forces were identified as possible reasons for this, including planning and policy development for Lut desert tourism, governance of Lut desert tourism development, strengthening governance in the development of Lut desert tourism, improving the economic system, and enhancing financial support and investment. These factors play a significant role and have positive and negative effects on the future development of Lut desert tourism.
These propellants have a significant advantage in influencing other variables, giving them the power to drive future environmental development variables. As a result, they can be identified as key factors and effective drivers for the future development of Lut Desert tourism by the year 2036. In direct and indirect effects, driving factors carry the most weight compared to other influencing factors, highlighting their importance in developing Lut Desert tourism. Planning for developing desert tourism depends on various factors and conditions, which can be achieved through systematic and structural application.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
This research is supported by the research grant of university of Mazandaran number33/26883). We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this pape.

Keywords


  1. Alrawaf, T., Abubakar, I., Alshabibi, M., Al-Matar, M., Dano, L., Elhadi, A., Farooqi, A., Alshihri, S., Alzenifeer, M., & Al-Odah, A. (2023). The distribution of ecotourism activities and potential consequences for the Saudi desert ecosystem. Arid Environments, 213, 1-11. doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2023.104950
  2. Anup, K.C., Ghimire, S., & Dhakal, A. (2021). Ecotourism and its impact on indigenous people and their local environment: case of Ghalegaun and Golaghat of Nepal. Geojournal, 86 (6), 2747–2765. doi.org/10.1007/s10708-020-10222-3
  3. Ariyani, N., & Fauzi, A. (2019). Analysis of Strategic Variables for Ecotourism Development; an Application of Micmac. Social Studies and Economics,­ 3(3), 1–12. doi:10.9734/sajsse/2019/v3i330107
  4. Brandt, S., & Buckley, C. (2018). A global systematic review of empirical evidence of ecotourism impacts on forests in biodiversity hotspots. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 32, 112-118. doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2018.04.004
  5. Bricker, K., & Kerstetter, D. (2017). “Effecting positive change-an introduction. Ecotourism, 16(3), 201-202.  doi:10.1080/14724049.2017.1390936
  6. Buckley, R. (2009a). Ecotourism: Principles & Practices. Wallingford, UK. CABI, 2009.
  7. Buckley, R., Castley, G., Pegas, F.V., Mossaz, A.C., & Steven, R. (2012). A Population Accounting Approach to Assess Tourism Contributions to Conservation of IUCN-Redlisted Mammal Species. Plos One, 7(9), 1-8. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0044134
  8. Buckley, R., Morrison, C., & Castley, JG. (2016) Net Effects of Ecotourism on Threatened Species Survival. PLoS ONE, 11(2), 1-12. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147988
  9. Budowski, G. (1976). Tourism and Environmental Conservation: Conflict, Coexistence, or Symbiosis?. Environmental Conservation, 3(1), 27–31. doi:10.1017/S0376892900017707
  10. Chogan, P. (2022). Exploring motivations and satisfaction of ecolodge patrons in desert areas of Iran. International Hospitality Review, 36(2), 358-372. doi.org/10.1108/IHR-12-2020-0071
  11. Di Berardo, M., Facioni, C., & Paura, R. (2022). Futures Studies in Italy: an exploratory assessment of organizations, approaches, and objectives. Italian Institute for the Future,  17-48.
  12. El Azyzy, Y., & Ekiz, E. (2021). “Sustainable Tourism: Case of Ecotourism in the Moroccan High Atlas”, International CEO and Social Sciences Congress (CEOSSC), December 18-20, 2020, Gorajde University, Bosnia Hersegovina, Full Paper presented.
  13. Eslamian, P., & Shahivandi, A. (2024). Isfahan Tourism Futures Study as a Competitive City with a Scenario Writing Approach. Journal of Urban Tourism11(1), 59-76. doi: 10.22059/jut.2024.337371.1001 [in Persian]
  14. Eyisi, A., Lee, D., & Trees, K. (2021). Facilitating collaboration and community participation in tourism development: The case of South-Eastern Nigeria. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 21(3), 275-288. doi.org/10.1177/1467358420966035
  15. Fennell, D. (2001). A content analysis of ecotourism definitions. Current Issues in Tourism, 4, 403-421. doi:10.1080/13683500108667896
  16. Fennell, D. (­2015). Ethics in Tourism. In: Moscardo, G., Benckendorff, P. (eds) Education for Sustainability in Tourism. CSR, Sustainability, Ethics & Governance. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. doi:­10.1007/978-3-662-47470-9_3
  17. Fennell, D. (2021). Routledge Handbook of Ecotourism. 5th ed.; Routledge: Abingdon, UK.
  18. foresight may add to increased trust, organizational learning and future oriented policy
  19. Ghahramanifard, H., Hoseinzadedalir, K., & Moosavi, M.S. (2021). Recognition and Evaluation of Effective Vital Drivers on the Future of Tourism Development in Iran's Metropolises Case Study: Tabriz Metropolis. Journal of Urban Tourism8(1), 67-82. doi: 10.22059/jut.2021.316833.869 [in Persian].
  20. Gidley, J. (2017). The future: A very short introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  21. Glenn, C., & Gordon, J. (2009). Futures Research Methodology 3.0. Washington, DC: The Millennium Project.
  22.  Haghi, M. R., & heidarzadeh, E. (2022). Factors driving the realization of sustainable urban tourism with ecotourism approach, Case study: Khansar city. Journal of Tourism and Development11(2), 19-36. doi:­10.22034/jtd.2021.285189.2338 [in Persian]­­
  23. Hunt, C., Durham, W.H., Driscoll, L., & Honey, M. (2015). Can ecotourism deliver real economic, social, and environmental benefits? A study of the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. Sustainable Tourism, 23(3), 339–57. doi:10.1080/09669582.2014.965176
  24. Inayatullah, S. (2013). “Futures Studies: theories and methods,” in Fernando Gutierrez Junquera, ed., There’s a Future: Visions for a better world (Madrid, BBVA, 2013), 36-66.
  25. Kahdouei, E., Farzan, F., & Abedi Samakosh, M. (2024). Identifying Factors Affecting the Adoption of Sport Tourism in The Desert (Case Study: Yazd University Students). Desert Management, 11(4), 71-82. doi:10.22034/jdmal.2023.2012391.1439 [in Persian]
  26. Karimifar, S., Khatibi, S.M.R., & Bigdeli Rad, V. (2023). Meta-analysis of the most important factors in the development of sustainable ecotourism in Iran. Future Cities vision 4(4), 37-58. [in Persian]
  27. Kononiuk, A., & Glinska, E. (2015) Foresight in a Small Enterprise. A Case Study Bialystok University of Technology. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences (­213), 971-976. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.513
  28. Koshim, A., Sergeyeva, A., Kakimzhanov, Y., Aktymbayeva, A., Sakypbek, M., & Sapiyeva A. (2023). Sustainable Development of Ecotourism in “Altynemel” National Park, Kazakhstan: Assessment through the Perception of Residents. Sustainability, 15(11), 1-18. doi.org/10.3390/su15118496.
  29. Lemelin, H., Dawson, J., & Stewart, E. J. (2017). Last-chance tourism: Adapting tourism opportunities in a changing world. London, UK: Routledge. ISBN 9781138081284
  30. Lindsey, P.A., Alexander, R.R., du Toit, J.T., & Mills, M. G. L. (2005). The potential contribution of ecotourism to African wild dog Lycaon pictus conservation in South Africa. Biological Conservation, 123(3), 339–348. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2004.12.002
  31. Malaska, Pentii. (­2001). A futures research outline of a post-modern idea of progress. Futures­, 33, 225–243. doi:10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00069-0
  32. Masini, E. B. (2001). Futures Studies in Italy and The limits to growth. Futures, 33, 21-26.
  33. Mavlonov, A. M., Mirzoeva, I. E., & Kalandarova, D. D. (2020). The Desert Tourism And Opportunities For Its Development (On The Example Of Bukhara Region). Interdisciplinary Innovations and Research, 2(12), 68–73. ­doi.org/10.37547/tajiir/Volume02Issue12-10
  34. Mossaz, A. C., Buckley, R., & Castley, J. G. (2015). Ecotourism Contributions to Conservation of African Big Cats. Journal for Nature Conservation, 28, 112–118. doi:10.1016/j.jnc.2015.09.009
  35. Mostofi, A. (1972). Shahdad and the historical geography of Lut Desert. publication No. 8 of Geographical Reports. [in Persian].
  36. Motti, V. V. (2017). Sources of futures studies from foresight to anticipation. In R. Poli (Ed.), Handbook of anticipation. Cham: Springer.  doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_98-1.
  37. Motti, V.V. (2022) Futures Studies. In: Glăveanu V.P. (eds) The Palgrave Encyclopedia of the Possible. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.pp1-5. doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98390-5_269-1
  38. Motti, V.V., Glenn, J., Di Berardo, M., Pelton, J., Gardner, A., Mengel, T., & Mureithi, L. (2023). Futures Studies: Contributions and Sources. Washington, D.C., Alternative Planetary Futures Institute (Ap-Fi).
  39. Nevin, O., & Gilbert, B. (2005). Measuring the cost of risk avoidance in brown bears: Further evidence of positive impacts of ecotourism. Biological Conservation, 123, 453–460.
  40. Purwoko, A., Kuswanda, W., Situmorang, R.O.P., Hutapea, F.J., Saputra, M.H., & Pasaribu, P.H.P. (2022). Orangutan ecotourism on Sumatra Island: Current conditions and a call for further development. Sustainability, 14, 1-20. doi:10.3390/su141811328
  41. Reimer, J. K., & Walter, P. (2013). How do you know it when you see it? Community-based ecotourism in the Cardamom Mountains of southwestern Cambodia. Tourism Management, 34, 122–132. doi:­10.1016/j.tourman.2012.04.002
  42. Rogerson, C. M., & Visser, G. (2011). Current themes in tourism and development in Southern Africa. Tourism Review International, 15(1-2).77-90. doi:10.3727/154427211X13139345020336
  43. Saarinen, J. (2018). What are wilderness areas for? Tourism and political ecologies of wilderness uses and management in the Anthropocene. Sustainable Tourism, 27(3), 1-16. doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2018.1456543
  44. Sahahiri, R.M., Griffin, A.L., & Sun, Q. (2023). Investigating Ecotourism Opportunities Measurements in a Complex Adaptive System: A Systematic Literature Review. Sustainability, 15(3), 1-20. doi.org/10.3390/su15032678
  45. Santarém, F., Campos, J., Pereira, P., Hamidou, D., Saarinen, J., & Brito, J.C. (2018). Using multivariate statistics to assess ecotourism potential of water-bodies: A case-study in Mauritania. Tourism Management, 67, 34-46. doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.01.001
  46. Santarém, F., Pereira, P., Saarinen, J., & Brito, J.C. (2019a). New method to identify and map flagship fleets for promoting conservation and ecotourism. Biological Conservation, 229, 113-124. doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.10.017
  47. Santarém, F., Saarinen, J., & Brito, J.C. (2019). Desert Conservation and Management: Ecotourism. In Goldstein MI, DellaSala DA (Eds.), Encyclopedia of the World's Biomes, vol. 2. Elsevier, pp. 259-273. doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.11827-5
  48. Santarém, F., Saarinen, J., & Brito, J.C. (2020). Mapping and analysing cultural ecosystem services in conflict areas. Ecological Indicators, 110, 1-16. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105943
  49. Schismenos, S., Zaimes, G.N., Iakovoglou, V., & Emmanouloudis, D. (2019). Environmental sustainability and ecotourism of riparian and deltaic ecosystems: Opportunities for rural Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Greece. Environ. Stud, ­76, 675–688. doi:10.1080/00207233.2018.1510579
  50. Sheikhi, H., & Dinarundnejad, S. (2024). Identification and Analysis of Effective Factors on the Development of Tourism with a Future Research Approach (Case Study: Shush City). Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement, 14(50), 123-148. doi:­10.22111/gaij.2024.44864.3097 [in Persian]
  51. Steven, R., Castley, J. G., & Buckley, R. (2013). Tourism Revenue as a Conservation Tool for Threatened Birds in Protected Areas. PLoS ONE, 8(5), 1–8. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0062598
  52. Stronza, A. (2007). The economic promise of ecotourism for conservation. Ecotourism, 6(3), 210–221. doi:10.2167/joe177.0
  53. Stronza, A. L., Hunt, C. A., & Fitzgerald, L. A. (2019). Ecotourism for Conservation?. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 44(1), 229-253. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-101718-033046.
  54. Sutrisna, M., Saskara, N., & Ayu, I. (2020). Prospective Analysis of Sustainable Tourism Development in Penglipuran Village as A Tourist Village Role Model in Bali. Technium Social Sciences ournal, 13, 184-198. doi:­1939-6104-20-S6-159.
  55. SZhou, Y., Buesching, C.D., Newman, C., Kaneko, Y., Xie, Z., & Macdonald, D.W.,­(2013). Balancing the benefits of ecotourism and development: the effects of visitor trail-use on mammals in a Protected Area in rapidly development China. Biol. Conserv, 165,18–24. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2013.05.007
  56. Taheri Demneh, M., Asadnia, A., & Ebrahimi, F. (2022). Clustering and Analysis of the Status of Scientific Articles in the Field of Futures Studies. Futures Studies7(2), 1-22.
  57. Taibah, H., Al-Hilali, A., & Huzaim, W. (2023). The significance of camping in promoting nature tourism, a field study on Riyadh tourists in line with Saudi Arabia’s vision 2030. Tourism, Hospitality and Archeology Sciences, 4, 73–90. doi.org/10.21608/kjao.2023.286091
  58. United Nations World Tourism Organization. (2023). Sustainable Development,, https://www.unwto.org/sustainable-development, last accessed 12 March.
  59. Van der Steen, M., & Van der Duin, P. (2012). Learning ahead of time, how evaluation of and strategy. Futures, 44, 487-493. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2012.03.010
  60. Watson, J. E. M., Venter, O., Lee, J., Jones, K. R., Robinson, J. G., Possingham, H. P., & Allan, J. R. (2018). Protect the last of the wild. Nature, 563, 27-30. doi:10.1038/d41586-018-07183-6
  61. Weaver, D. (2002). The evolving concept of ecotourism and its potential impacts. Sustainable Development, 5, 251-264. doi:10.1504/IJSD.2002.003753
  62. Weaver, D. B. (2001a). Ecotourism. Wiley: Brisbane, Australia.
  63. Weaver, D. B. (2001b). The Encyclopedia of Ecotourism. CABI: Wallingford, UK.
  64. Weaver, D. B., & Lawton, L. J. (2002). Overnight ecotourist market segmentation in the Gold Coast hinterland of Australia. Travel Research, 40, 270–280. doi:10.1177/0047287502040003005
  65. Zare, R. (2024). Desert tourism: A New Perspective in the Development of Sustainable Tourism in Iran (Geographical Area: Um El Debs Forests). Tourism Planning and Development13(48), 141-161. ­doi:­10.22080/jtpd.2024.26508.3855 [in Persian]